Non-Wedge Issues

My fair state got a mention today up at Salon in an article called Dueling wedge issues in Wisconsin. It's a look at the tight race for governor with Democratic incumbent Jim Doyle trying to fend off Republican challenger Mark Green. According to a recent poll, the two are in a dead heat. The wedge issues noted in the article are gay marriage and stem cell research.

In case you don't know, there's going to be a referendum on the ballot this fall seeking to amend our state constitution to outlaw gay marriage. But it's not proving to be a cakewalk.

They have launched voter referendums to ban the practice in 20 states and won in a landslide each time. Wisconsin will have an anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot on Nov. 7, an amendment to the state Constitution that would ban same-sex unions.

The numbers, however, are not as favorable to Republicans as they have been in the past. Polls show that Wisconsin voters are more closely divided than voters have been in other states. The previous gay-marriage ban that came closest to failing, Oregon's 2004 referendum, still drew 57 percent support. In Wisconsin, however, a poll conducted in mid-June by WisPolitics.com showed Wisconsinites evenly divided on a proposed amendment to the state's Constitution that would prohibit same-sex marriage and civil unions.

If Doyle can't get votes with his opposition to this measure, then he's going to play the stem cell card. Stem cells were first isolated here in Madison and they've become big business here. Doyle has put many of his economic eggs into this basket and it lobbying to have the Wisconsin Institutes for Discovery built here on campus. It would be a private/public organization setup to research stem cells, foster companies here in the state, and boost our economy. Green opposes embryonic stem cell research while Doyle favors it. And since the public generally favors it as well, Doyle is hoping to use this to his advantage. But the poll numbers are close.

I am not a huge fan of Doyle's but Green is far worse. Despite his opponent having had a brush with Jack Abramoff, Doyle has his own problems with campaign contributions, the failure of a high-profile cost-saving measure, etc. State employees are not happy with Doyle. Honestly, I don't know the average turnout here in Wisconsin for mid-terms. But with the gay marriage amendment out there, I’m sure it will be higher than normal. Plus I think you're going to have a good turnout by state employees, many of whom have bones to pick with him: no raises in a few years, layoffs & increasing workloads, and the proliferation of contractors. The failure of the migration to the Oracle Collaboration Suite has left a bitter taste in many people's mouths as well. Read the comment by Mr. Z from 25 July – names are named and it has created a stir at DOA. While the author doesn't rant against Doyle, the project was part of his effort to reduce the costs of state government and thusly incredibly political. Notice that the Green Party candidate for governor, Nelson Eisman, is a state employee. I'm thinking that he decided to run because he's had enough. While I honestly do not have my finger on the pulse of the attitudes of state employees, I do know more than a few who really don't want to vote for Doyle because their lives and the lives of their co-workers & friends have been negatively impacted by Doyle's measures. They really don't want to vote for Green either but, as with Jaws 4, it's personal.

I don't think that state employees who have a grudge against Doyle are numerous enough to really swing the election, but I think that there's more going on here than stem cells and gay marriage. They're important, to be sure, and I understand that Salon is going to write about elements of the situation here in Wisconsin that are in the news constantly as well as shy away from local issues. One thing about the article that bugs me a bit is the way it treats the amendment and stem cell research as both being issues that (ahem) stem from the governor's office. The candidates' positions on embryonic stem cell research are theirs but the amendment is a whole separate thing that's not tied to one individual or another. For instance, a liberal voter could vote against the amendment yet not vote for Doyle.

My worry is that non-wedge issues are aplenty and Doyle could lose votes. You've got a bunch of pissed off state employees (and former state employees who were downsized), the Georgia Thompson scandal, questionable campaign contributions, university system tuition constantly on the rise, property taxes, et al. Could these non-wedge issues snowball enough to really hurt Doyle?