Former alderwoman Brenda Konkel takes on a piece at The Daily Page by Joe Tarr that was posted yesterday. At issue is how the increase in bus fares, which took effect in April, have affected ridership.
Tarr quotes Mayor Dave, who led the charge for the fare increase, as well as Madison Metro's spokesman, Mick Rusch. His choice of sources got in Konkel's craw and she noted that the reporter apparently only spoke with those who favored the increase. She proceeds to post numbers which compare ridership from each of the first six months of 2008 with those of this year. Of the first six months of this year, April, the month the rate increase took effect, saw the smallest increase in ridership of any month. The numbers show a decrease in riders for May and June. Her conclusion?
And while they [Madison Metro]may have had 4.3% increase in ridership during the first half of the year, its [sic]not the 6% they said they would have. And since the fares went up, the ridership is down, instead of increasing by that 6% that was talked about.
The problem here is that Konkel presents readers with a false dilemma. She assumes that any decrease in ridership after April is wholly due to the fare increase. What about gas prices? Don't they factor into this?
According to Consumer Reports, the average gas price for the Midwest on 12 May 2008 was $3.74/gallon. CR says that a gallon of gas on 25 May 2009 was $2.47 - a difference of $1.27. You find a similar situation when comparing the prices for June. Surely the comparatively cheaper price of gas this year has something to do with Metro's ridership numbers.
To attribute fluctuations in ridership numbers solely to a fare increase, as Konkel does, is ridiculous, if not dishonest.
2 comments:
The failure is two fold - first, the increase in fares was supposed to raise $685,000 more in revenues this year. So far, we're down $440,000. That was the SOLE reason for the fare increase. That's a huge failure.
The loss in ridership (or slower increases), which many of us predicted, is somewhat secondary in the failure, however, primary in my mind to the long term success of Madison Metro. They (Mayor and Metro staff) said Solomon's predictions that there would be slower increases were all wrong and the staff numbers that predicted the bigger increases were more accurate. At the time, we were fighting about how big the increase was, no one actually thought there would be decreases in ridership - that was kinda the worst case scenario - and we might be there due to the gas prices. The fact remains, at this point, Solomon has been more on target with his predictions.
Why people stopped riding, I'm not sure, but yes, gas prices probably figure into that. I don't think I ever claimed that wasn't a factor. We/they also raised the parking rates and maybe that will impact things as well? Obviously, there isn't any one determining factor in all this . . . but the fact remains, we're not going to be $685,000 richer at the end of the year . . .
Hi Ms. Konkel - Thanks for commenting.
My point was that it is futile to compare who predicted what when all you have are the Metro numbers. Neither your post nor Tarr's article nor anything I remember hearing Solomon say this past spring had anything to do with the price of gas or any other possible factor. Everything revolved around the fare increase. As far as Solomon's predictions being on target, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
While the sole reason for the fare increase was to increase revenues, that doesn't mean that the increase was the sole reason for the decline. Predictions are just that - predictions. Not every variable can be accounted for with 100% accuracy.
You never claimed it wasn't a factor but it was clearly intimated.
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