Us and Them

I found an interesting article entitled "North Korea, Iran and the United States in the Dangerous Game of Nations" by William R. Polk, a professor of history and former member of the Policy Planning Council of the State Department. In it he discusses the ambitions of countries to acquire nuclear weapons and the position of the United States towards them. He begins by pointing out a disappearance which was not reported in any major American newspapers, namely:

"...the disappearance from the International Atomic Energy Agency of a set or sets of detailed engineering plans for making nuclear materials and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). While there never have been any significant scientific secrets on the nuclear bomb, there has been somewhat restricted engineering information that would enable others to speed up, make more cheaply and avoid obvious tell-tale aspects of acquisition. Now we must assume that production information is widely available."

After some historical and tactical background, he says:So, in strategic terms, acquisition of even half a dozen (nuclear) weapons gives the holder virtual immunity from attack. Thus, regimes that fear attack can be expected either to attempt to acquire nuclear weapons or at least to give themselves the option to do so in case of need. That is the pressing issue we face today.

Polk explains that the methodology of addressing this issue is defined by the March 2005 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America. Polk reviews some major points in the document and elucidates:

...it is clear that the pronouncement is not so much a policy directive as a warning to actual or potential rivals or enemies. Translated, it means that states that move toward parity with the United States even in their own neighborhoods (as the paper puts it, “evolve into capable regional rivals or enemies”) are in danger of being attacked.

He then goes on to theorize whether or not our current strategic policies can successfully address the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran. Starting with North Korea, Polk describes a bit of the country's history which has helped make it into the insular, xenophobic state that it is today. He concludes:

Putting myself in his (Kim Jong Il's) shoes, I guess that he would advise that, in light of American pronouncements and actions, North Korea would be foolish to give up its nuclear force. Indeed, to deter an American attack, it should enhance its military capacity. Psychologically, moreover, it should seek to convince the United States that it would fight the Americans and their allies, with what the Israelis called the “Samson Option,” that is, even to the point of national suicide. Further threats are likely only to convince the North Korean government of its danger and so increase its determination to protect itself at any cost. Someone must be giving Kim Jong Il this advice for it is exactly what North Korea is doing. It recently closed down its electricity-producing nuclear reactors to extract some 8,000 only partially-used fuel rods which will yield enough plutonium for at least one more bomb.

In light of this, I will point out that North Korea has resumed negotiations.

As for Iran, well, I haven't finished that bit yet and the climactic light saber duel between Obi Wan and Anakin is about to come on so it'll have to wait...